TRENTON -- The number of Hispanics living in New Jersey could exceed the state's black population within two years, if population estimates released yesterday by the U.S. Census Bureau prove accurate and demographic changes continue at the same pace.

Roughly 1,082,327 blacks who are not of Hispanic descent were living in the state on July 1, 1999, compared with 1,027,277 Hispanics. The population gap, nearly 250,000 when the last census was done in 1990, closed by an average of more than 21,000 per year in the 1990s.

In 1999, the difference was estimated at roughly 55,000. If that trend continues, the state's Hispanic population would surpass its non-Hispanic black population and become the state's largest minority group sometime in 2002.

James W. Hughes, dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, said the high rate of immigration during the 1990s has fueled the population shift. He said it is happening faster than most people anticipated.

"We've always been an immigration gateway," Hughes said. "It's not surprising that we would be at the forefront of this change."

Race and ethnicity is a sticky matter for the Census Bureau. People who are of Hispanic descent, primarily from places in the Caribbean, Central America and South America, are also included in one of the racial categories -- white, black, Asian or American Indian.

In fact, the recently completed Census 2000 allowed respondents to include themselves in more than one race for the first time. The population counts released next year will include 126 racial and ethnic combinations.

In New Jersey, according to the 1999 estimates, 86.2 percent of Hispanics are white, 11.2 percent are black, 1.8 percent are Asian and 0.8 percent are American Indian.

If Hispanics aren't removed from the black population, the overall Hispanic population probably won't become the largest minority for at least 10 years. The current demographic trends suggest it could occur in 2010, but trends can change notably over that much time.

The change could have more than just milestone significance, says Frank Rusciano, the chairman of the political science department at Rider University. Social services will have to continue working to overcome a language barrier. And politicians will have to take notice.

"There really hasn't been a real attempt in the state of New Jersey to court the Hispanic vote. Looking at those numbers, that's going to change," Rusciano said.

Rusciano said blacks vote overwhelmingly Democratic, but Hispanics are less monolithic. Many are from predominately Catholic countries, which tends to make them social conservatives, yet many are in economic circumstances that have them lean more toward liberal policies.

"Someone from Guatemala is not going to think the same as someone from Puerto Rico, for example," Rusciano said. "As silly as it sounds, we tend to forget these countries all have different histories."

Hughes said immigrants are attracted to New Jersey because of its strong economy, which makes it more likely they can find work. They are also attracted by the international airports in Newark, New York and Philadelphia.

"In the late 19th century, when immigrants from Europe would come through Ellis Island, New Jersey and New York were often destinations for them," Hughes said. "It's the same way today, except the gateway is the airport."

In terms of absolute growth, the increase of 30,222 Hispanics between July 1998 and July 1999 was actually the state's smallest in five years. At its peak, between 1996 and 1997, an estimated 33,360 Hispanics were added to the state's population.

More than two in five residents of Hudson County are Hispanic, and three in 10 Passaic County residents are Hispanic. Hispanics exceed the 12.6 percent state average in just three other counties: Union County, 18.6 percent; Cumberland County, 18.3; and Essex County, 16.5.

The two largest gains for the state's Asian population occurred in the last three years, according to the estimates. The population of non-Hispanic Asians climbed by just over 22,400 between 1998 and 1999, and it increased by more than two-thirds between 1990 and 1999.

Asians accounted for 5.8 percent of the state's population. Again, only five counties exceeded the state's proportion: Bergen County, at 11 percent; Middlesex County, 10.8; Hudson County, 9.9; Somerset County, 7.6; and Morris County, 6.8.

The state's population in July 1999 was 8,143,412, the Census Bureau estimated.

© copyright 2000 Gannett News Service

Published on August 31, 2000